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Journal of Plant Ecology Advance Access published online on June 17, 2008
Journal of Plant Ecology, doi:10.1093/jpe/rtn013
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Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences and the Botanical Society of China 2008.

Response of larch species to climate changes

Wenfang Leng1,2, Hong S. He1,3 and Hongjuan Liu4

1 Group of Landscape Ecology, Institute of Applied Ecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenyang 110016, China
2 The Tourism Department, Qinghuangdao Institute of Technology, Qinghuangdao 066100, China
3 Department of Forest, School of Nature Resources, University of Missouri, Columbia, MO 65211, USA
4 Group of Information Management of Agriculture and Ecosystem, Center for Agriculture Resources Research, Institute of Genetics and Developmental Biology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

Global warming has changed the distributions of forests of northeastern China. Larix are very important species in this area. Predicting the potential distributions of Larix species and their responses to climate change would attract more and more attention.

This paper predicted the potential distributions of three Larix species based on ‘climatic-topographic’ relationships by logistic regression. The results showed that L. gmelinii is predicted to retreat northwestward by 220 km by 2050 and by 270 km more by 2100; L. olgensis var. changpaiensis is predicted to retreat northwestward by 200 km by 2050 and by 190 to 300 km more by 2100; L. principis-rupprechtii is predicted to retreat northeastward by 200 km by 2050 and by 250 to 400 km more by 2100. This indicated that L. gmelinii could have its optimum latitude moved into Russia, L. olgensis var. changpaiensis could move to the Small Xing'an Mountains and L. principis-rupprechtii would move to the middle part of the Great Xing'an Mountains.

Keywords: Larix gmelinii • Larix olgensis var. changpaiensis • Larix principis-rupprechtii • logistic regression • climate change • Northeastern China


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